I am very thankful for Free Traders being a key faction of the Brexit movement. I think that the coalition could be brought back together in 2029.
High Street is getting crushed by Labour. Bank of England forecasts for small business bring tears to my eyes. If Free Traders can support small businesses across the country I think there will be lots of reciprocity.
I think no one will get everything they want in politics. One concession is that I think some protections against countries that pay too little for labour. What is the principle of a price floor on labour for your own country but not for your trading partner? The price floor on labour is based on a very popular principle of the “living wage”. So some things can’t be free traded away.
High subsidies are not conservative but they might be necessary to get a concession from farmers for free trade. If farmers can get by doing something they’ll do it. American Barley might not compete with subsidized British Barley but a whole load of American products could have the drawbridge lowered for like beef.
I think that Free Traders can win a lot of concessions and make a lot of deals in actually implementing Brexit freedoms and the future of UK policy. I don’t think it will be perfect Free Trade theory. I think it could be a lot better than it is now and that it will be so much better than if stuck in the low growth, low productivity EU.
I really hope Reform, the Tories, and everyone gets back together for 2029. Combined it’s the biggest voting bloc in Britain in the 21st century. It’s truly the will of the people and shrewd characters in a Government could get a domestic deal done where everyone gets something they want and international deals that open up foreign markets for British entrepreneurs.
Happy to see you’re still up and fighting for Brexit.
Thank you for your thoughtful comments. I wouldn't put a floor on the price of labour, as trade is the best way to help countries out of poverty, who will then buy your goods. Global absolute poverty has collapsed since 1990, as China and India started to trade, and this has helped developed economies sell their goods in return.
I agree with you on subsidies, as there may be some industries that you to need help, either for strategic for political reasons.
Thank you, Jacob. A timely and necessary illumination of tariffs, a subject we indeed need to get to grips with. Everything you say is true but there are many other factors driving President Trump’s stance that must be considered.
We are not in Ricardo’s free-wheeling, small nation, small company, low tax, liberal (small l), unregulated 19th. Century.
Large mercantilist trade blocs such as the EU, and bad actor nations like Russia and China confront us.
China with its under-valued exchange rate, subsidised manufactures and exports, non-existent patent and intellectual property protection , slave Labour, disdain for the environment and encouragement of industrial larceny is gaming the system.
Multinational companies and Wall Street have also colluded with China in the hollowing out and de-industrialisation of the West.
The result for blue-collar workers and the middle class has been falling real incomes. The share of profits relative to incomes in western economies has been rising throughout the 21st Century. Our people are getting poorer.
This is not a left-wing rant nor a recent event. Sir James Goldsmith, no limp leftie, predicted just this outcome in his prescient little book, The Trap, published in 1997.
Trump at least sees today’s problem; his policy solution may not be perfect, it may be wrong. But Jacob, we must confront today’s world; 19th century economic theory and High Tory philosophy doesn’t cut our more complicated problems.
Our 30-year western decline is embedded here. For sure, policy errors, pure leadership funk, short-termism and scientific cluelessness have also played their part
Thank you for your reply and the reference to Jimmy Goldsmith's book 'The Trap', which I read many years ago.
I think the policy that has kept down wages is mass migration, not free trade. This has stopped us innovating and investing in capital, because cheap labour has been seen as a panacea by businesses. Lowering the cost of goods always improves the standard of living of people who are buying them, regardless of whether they are subsidised by foreign government or not.
Mass migration rocketed under the last Government and we're supposed to believe anything will change under its new Nigerian face.It beggars belief.!!!!!
Napoleon said "Let China sleep for when it wakes the whole world will know".How true .Deng Xiao Ping is one of the few men who has changed the world and his country for the better.China is successful because it produces things,we produce nothing and it's all very well to bash them,we've been buying from them.They produce wonderful things.Politics aside,they obviously want to improve their lives for the better.I did two tours of China and we went around some silk factories as part of it.The poor wretches had their hands in water all day,I picked one girl's hand up ,her fingers were all wrinkled but hard.She still smiled and laughed.Dear soul.
I remember showing Jacob a wonderful collapsible steel cup I'd bought.I paid next to nothing for it.Made in China naturally.We couldn't compete.As long as I've been alive we've been subsidising the steel Industry here.This was many years BEFORE Port Talbot was closed down.
I'm ambiguous towards Trump now since his statements on Gaza.It strikes me he's a typical American windbag,issuing these Executive orders then rescinding them the next day.The art of the deal ,sounds more like Jews haggling in the market place.Of course the new foreign secretary is a Jew York property developer ,like Trump.Sorry typo again,I obviously mean New York.
Perhaps together they can open a casino in Gaza where you can see midget boxing as in one of his casinos in the good old U S Of A.Yipee Kay yay !!
I am a citizen of mainland China, and I can assure you that Chinese people, especially the younger generation, take pride in wearing brands like Adidas and Nike. I understand that this may be difficult to grasp, but the reality is that Chinese consumers tend to avoid domestic products. In China, people generally believe that low prices are a sign of poor quality.😂
I do hope one day you will be able to visit Bath ,there are so many Chinese here who love the Jane Austen culture,the locals have even begun to call it "China town".Thankfully the racist expression of "The yellow peril "has been well and truly banished to the racist and colonialist past where it belongs.
Niehau,Thankyou for your reply.I would like to assure you I have NEVER worn trainers.I retain fond memories of my two tours of China.Especially a factory in Suzhou that made cloisonne vases (Beautiful canals as well).I remember the red blob that came out of the furnace and then turned into a veritable rainbow of colours before our eyes.Also the summer palace where I saw the amazing marble boat of Tzu Zhi(the only boat built for the Chinese Navy at the time, as she became sea sick).Shanghai with it's marvellous bund,I stayed at the Peace Hotel where Noel Coward wrote "Private lives " but I didn't much care for the Jazz band,not being a fan of Jazz anyway.Of course the famous Terracotta soldiers in Xian.I even went to Harbin for the ice festival on my second trip ,right up in Manchuria.Unforgettable.Longevity and happiness to you and most importantly health.
Whatever made you choose Brian as your Anglican name ?I had an uncle Brian who for a short time was Postmaster General of Uganda ,a liberal who admired the new President assuming office ,Idi Amin!!!.I'm sure your Chinese name is much more prosaic,always having a meaning.So good wishes for the Year of the Snake,the only ones in England obviously being our Jew Prime Minister and his fellow Jew Attorney General that he placed in the Lords , Hamer.
Whilst being a great supporter of the British empire and all it did ,we should have nothing but shame for the way we gained Hong Kong,turning the population into opium addicts,and those dreadful signs in public parks."No dogs ,no Chinese "RP
Trump's trading arrangement with China is certainly a work in progress, as he just suspended the imposed tariffs on Chinese goods. I like that he is willing to turn on a dime like that when things go south for his citizens. People who were ordering inexpensive items from certain Chinese websites were getting charged 25% of the merchandise price as an additional tariff. Trump pulled that for the next 30 days.
A neighbor of mine orders many clothing items online from Chinese websites with very attractive low prices. Once you add 25% to the cost, why order from China? Trump will make a deal with them for sure.
I hope the deal includes better packaging. One particular Chinese website ships clothing in clear plastic bags. This practice is heinous. Why not use an opaque bag or box so that shipping clerks and postal workers are not gawping at your delicates and unmentionables? I don't want my postman Gerard snickering at my little frillies. I like my goods shipped in sturdy boxes with lots of bubble wrap.
“China’s 2024 trade surplus was nearly $1Trillion, a record for not just China, but, adjusted for inflation, for any country in the world dating back for at least 100 years….” FFTT, Luke Gromen 7th Feb 2025.
These newly released trade figures illustrate just how China is gaming the world trade system. It’s a growing problem; it’s a world problem; it’s pure mercantilism; it’s now too big to duck.
Mercantilism is ultimately bad for the mercantilist. China is building up these surpluses but allocating capital badly, and has weak banking and property sectors. There may be some strategic industries where we should be concerned about its monopolistic tendencies, e.g. rare earth metals, but the main damage we have done to ourselves is through regulation, especially the green ideology, which has destroyed our steel industry, and is destroying our car industry.
The folly of mercantilism is probably an article in itself, which I will add to the list.
One thing I always enjoy from the 18th century is an anecdote about Voltaire(apparently).He was asked on his death bed if he rejected the devil.He replied "This is no time to make new enemies "!!!!!
Thanks for the information regarding our trade agreements and some facts about the negative impacts from some quarters. The worry about poor quality beef or poultry is a non event as the buyer has the choice. The same applies to any product on sale. “ He who pays the piper calls the tune “ . Buy British veg and produce to save on global transport.
I couldn't agree more ,if we get this bleached chicken from America,it's up to the buyer.I bought a chicken something from Iceland years ago .It had been raised in Slovakia,slaughtered in Poland(I think)and then transported from Hungary.Either way it had passed through 3 countries,I was horrified and went and succeeded in getting my money back.
The best chicken I ever tasted was a local one in Wells at a talk by a remarkable man called Jack Chalker who had suffered terribly at the hands of the Japanese.I'll never forget it.
SO as not to be outdone I'd like everyone to know my postman's name is Tony,who lives in Midsomer Norton.He's just delivered a set of 100% pure silk boxer shorts in a leopard skin print from China..I'm going to have a wonderful evening wearing them and listening to my record (when I Was in New York I admired a shop that had a sign saying I sell records not wall coverings I.E vinyl)by Telly Savalas with his all time classic"A good time man like me ain't got no business singing the blues"
This will be accompanied by a bottle of Mogan David's extra heavy Málaga wine ,with lime juice and soda.
To top it off, I'll educate myself with that classic American book on economic theory ,"Think big and kick ass"by one Donald J Trump(I think it was in collaboration with Irma Klutz but can't be sure).Yippee Kay yay .
Peter Ridler is quite right to say about buying British Veg and produce,sadly it is very hard to find a greengrocers these days.In Bath there are two barrow boys but the rest is supermarkets.When I lived in Rimini there was a wonderful "Mercato coperto"(covered market).All individual traders selling their fresh products,glorious a feast for the eyes.
There is one greengrocer in Frome and one in Moorland rd,Bath.Formerly Stokes a local chain ,they've been taken over by Syrians and I believe they are some sort of money laundering front.The fruit looks good but goes rotten within hours.They're clearly not skilled greengrocers as in summer they leave it all out in the sunlight.
The wonderful Grocers at Keynsham ,where Jacob's HQ was ,went sometime ago,having been there for donkeys years.
I'm glad you said American Beef is ALMOST as good as that from Somerset..I don't know about the British wine industry as I prefer Chilean wine (And raise a glass to Pinochet)or Argentinian Malbec.I always found Argentinian beef was very good ,the industry having been founded by English settlers I believe.As for economics I'll leave it you ,I always remember Ian Smith at one of our lunches at our club saying "Give me a one handed economist ,so they can't say on the other hand."He was a great admirer of the remarkable Salazar,who always balanced the budget and was a very modest man.When Ian met him(Mozambique was controlled by Portugal at the time, so important for Rhodesia's border.He was looked after by nuns.I've always found Portuguese clothes excellent.
WE have a labour shortage here on farms and literally thousands of black illegal immigrants.I don't see why they shouldn't be made to earn their keep and put to work on our farms.Indeed this is work at which they excell and are used to.On returning from Elba with a friend ,we passed Vinci (where Leonardo was born).There was a field of blacks working,it took me back to Africa but I said to Andrea it's good they're being put to work and they were obviously happy since there was no coercion..
A very timely article Sir Jacob
Thank you for your clarity of thought over a subject that requires more careful consideration.
Hello Jacob,
I am very thankful for Free Traders being a key faction of the Brexit movement. I think that the coalition could be brought back together in 2029.
High Street is getting crushed by Labour. Bank of England forecasts for small business bring tears to my eyes. If Free Traders can support small businesses across the country I think there will be lots of reciprocity.
I think no one will get everything they want in politics. One concession is that I think some protections against countries that pay too little for labour. What is the principle of a price floor on labour for your own country but not for your trading partner? The price floor on labour is based on a very popular principle of the “living wage”. So some things can’t be free traded away.
High subsidies are not conservative but they might be necessary to get a concession from farmers for free trade. If farmers can get by doing something they’ll do it. American Barley might not compete with subsidized British Barley but a whole load of American products could have the drawbridge lowered for like beef.
I think that Free Traders can win a lot of concessions and make a lot of deals in actually implementing Brexit freedoms and the future of UK policy. I don’t think it will be perfect Free Trade theory. I think it could be a lot better than it is now and that it will be so much better than if stuck in the low growth, low productivity EU.
I really hope Reform, the Tories, and everyone gets back together for 2029. Combined it’s the biggest voting bloc in Britain in the 21st century. It’s truly the will of the people and shrewd characters in a Government could get a domestic deal done where everyone gets something they want and international deals that open up foreign markets for British entrepreneurs.
Happy to see you’re still up and fighting for Brexit.
Thanks
Thank you for your thoughtful comments. I wouldn't put a floor on the price of labour, as trade is the best way to help countries out of poverty, who will then buy your goods. Global absolute poverty has collapsed since 1990, as China and India started to trade, and this has helped developed economies sell their goods in return.
I agree with you on subsidies, as there may be some industries that you to need help, either for strategic for political reasons.
“2025 election” YES！
Thank you, Jacob. A timely and necessary illumination of tariffs, a subject we indeed need to get to grips with. Everything you say is true but there are many other factors driving President Trump’s stance that must be considered.
We are not in Ricardo’s free-wheeling, small nation, small company, low tax, liberal (small l), unregulated 19th. Century.
Large mercantilist trade blocs such as the EU, and bad actor nations like Russia and China confront us.
China with its under-valued exchange rate, subsidised manufactures and exports, non-existent patent and intellectual property protection , slave Labour, disdain for the environment and encouragement of industrial larceny is gaming the system.
Multinational companies and Wall Street have also colluded with China in the hollowing out and de-industrialisation of the West.
The result for blue-collar workers and the middle class has been falling real incomes. The share of profits relative to incomes in western economies has been rising throughout the 21st Century. Our people are getting poorer.
This is not a left-wing rant nor a recent event. Sir James Goldsmith, no limp leftie, predicted just this outcome in his prescient little book, The Trap, published in 1997.
Trump at least sees today’s problem; his policy solution may not be perfect, it may be wrong. But Jacob, we must confront today’s world; 19th century economic theory and High Tory philosophy doesn’t cut our more complicated problems.
Our 30-year western decline is embedded here. For sure, policy errors, pure leadership funk, short-termism and scientific cluelessness have also played their part
Thank you for your reply and the reference to Jimmy Goldsmith's book 'The Trap', which I read many years ago.
I think the policy that has kept down wages is mass migration, not free trade. This has stopped us innovating and investing in capital, because cheap labour has been seen as a panacea by businesses. Lowering the cost of goods always improves the standard of living of people who are buying them, regardless of whether they are subsidised by foreign government or not.
Mass migration rocketed under the last Government and we're supposed to believe anything will change under its new Nigerian face.It beggars belief.!!!!!
Napoleon said "Let China sleep for when it wakes the whole world will know".How true .Deng Xiao Ping is one of the few men who has changed the world and his country for the better.China is successful because it produces things,we produce nothing and it's all very well to bash them,we've been buying from them.They produce wonderful things.Politics aside,they obviously want to improve their lives for the better.I did two tours of China and we went around some silk factories as part of it.The poor wretches had their hands in water all day,I picked one girl's hand up ,her fingers were all wrinkled but hard.She still smiled and laughed.Dear soul.
I remember showing Jacob a wonderful collapsible steel cup I'd bought.I paid next to nothing for it.Made in China naturally.We couldn't compete.As long as I've been alive we've been subsidising the steel Industry here.This was many years BEFORE Port Talbot was closed down.
I'm ambiguous towards Trump now since his statements on Gaza.It strikes me he's a typical American windbag,issuing these Executive orders then rescinding them the next day.The art of the deal ,sounds more like Jews haggling in the market place.Of course the new foreign secretary is a Jew York property developer ,like Trump.Sorry typo again,I obviously mean New York.
Perhaps together they can open a casino in Gaza where you can see midget boxing as in one of his casinos in the good old U S Of A.Yipee Kay yay !!
I am a citizen of mainland China, and I can assure you that Chinese people, especially the younger generation, take pride in wearing brands like Adidas and Nike. I understand that this may be difficult to grasp, but the reality is that Chinese consumers tend to avoid domestic products. In China, people generally believe that low prices are a sign of poor quality.😂
I do hope one day you will be able to visit Bath ,there are so many Chinese here who love the Jane Austen culture,the locals have even begun to call it "China town".Thankfully the racist expression of "The yellow peril "has been well and truly banished to the racist and colonialist past where it belongs.
Niehau,Thankyou for your reply.I would like to assure you I have NEVER worn trainers.I retain fond memories of my two tours of China.Especially a factory in Suzhou that made cloisonne vases (Beautiful canals as well).I remember the red blob that came out of the furnace and then turned into a veritable rainbow of colours before our eyes.Also the summer palace where I saw the amazing marble boat of Tzu Zhi(the only boat built for the Chinese Navy at the time, as she became sea sick).Shanghai with it's marvellous bund,I stayed at the Peace Hotel where Noel Coward wrote "Private lives " but I didn't much care for the Jazz band,not being a fan of Jazz anyway.Of course the famous Terracotta soldiers in Xian.I even went to Harbin for the ice festival on my second trip ,right up in Manchuria.Unforgettable.Longevity and happiness to you and most importantly health.
Whatever made you choose Brian as your Anglican name ?I had an uncle Brian who for a short time was Postmaster General of Uganda ,a liberal who admired the new President assuming office ,Idi Amin!!!.I'm sure your Chinese name is much more prosaic,always having a meaning.So good wishes for the Year of the Snake,the only ones in England obviously being our Jew Prime Minister and his fellow Jew Attorney General that he placed in the Lords , Hamer.
Whilst being a great supporter of the British empire and all it did ,we should have nothing but shame for the way we gained Hong Kong,turning the population into opium addicts,and those dreadful signs in public parks."No dogs ,no Chinese "RP
I typed ambivalent and it came out as ambiguous.Wonders of technology.
Very insightful, HugoC.
Trump's trading arrangement with China is certainly a work in progress, as he just suspended the imposed tariffs on Chinese goods. I like that he is willing to turn on a dime like that when things go south for his citizens. People who were ordering inexpensive items from certain Chinese websites were getting charged 25% of the merchandise price as an additional tariff. Trump pulled that for the next 30 days.
A neighbor of mine orders many clothing items online from Chinese websites with very attractive low prices. Once you add 25% to the cost, why order from China? Trump will make a deal with them for sure.
I hope the deal includes better packaging. One particular Chinese website ships clothing in clear plastic bags. This practice is heinous. Why not use an opaque bag or box so that shipping clerks and postal workers are not gawping at your delicates and unmentionables? I don't want my postman Gerard snickering at my little frillies. I like my goods shipped in sturdy boxes with lots of bubble wrap.
“China’s 2024 trade surplus was nearly $1Trillion, a record for not just China, but, adjusted for inflation, for any country in the world dating back for at least 100 years….” FFTT, Luke Gromen 7th Feb 2025.
These newly released trade figures illustrate just how China is gaming the world trade system. It’s a growing problem; it’s a world problem; it’s pure mercantilism; it’s now too big to duck.
Mercantilism is ultimately bad for the mercantilist. China is building up these surpluses but allocating capital badly, and has weak banking and property sectors. There may be some strategic industries where we should be concerned about its monopolistic tendencies, e.g. rare earth metals, but the main damage we have done to ourselves is through regulation, especially the green ideology, which has destroyed our steel industry, and is destroying our car industry.
The folly of mercantilism is probably an article in itself, which I will add to the list.
The steel industry here destroyed itself when it was sold to Indians,free market capitalism Jacob.Indians are inherently corrupt as any idiot knows.
Please don't
Yes please. You will have a long list in these days of change but move mercantilism up the list. Your thoughtful analysis is much appreciated.
No one is interested in a philosophy that,from what I can gather ,died out in the 18th century.A total bore and yawn fest.
One thing I always enjoy from the 18th century is an anecdote about Voltaire(apparently).He was asked on his death bed if he rejected the devil.He replied "This is no time to make new enemies "!!!!!
Enoch Powell was right.
Thanks for the information regarding our trade agreements and some facts about the negative impacts from some quarters. The worry about poor quality beef or poultry is a non event as the buyer has the choice. The same applies to any product on sale. “ He who pays the piper calls the tune “ . Buy British veg and produce to save on global transport.
I couldn't agree more ,if we get this bleached chicken from America,it's up to the buyer.I bought a chicken something from Iceland years ago .It had been raised in Slovakia,slaughtered in Poland(I think)and then transported from Hungary.Either way it had passed through 3 countries,I was horrified and went and succeeded in getting my money back.
The best chicken I ever tasted was a local one in Wells at a talk by a remarkable man called Jack Chalker who had suffered terribly at the hands of the Japanese.I'll never forget it.
SO as not to be outdone I'd like everyone to know my postman's name is Tony,who lives in Midsomer Norton.He's just delivered a set of 100% pure silk boxer shorts in a leopard skin print from China..I'm going to have a wonderful evening wearing them and listening to my record (when I Was in New York I admired a shop that had a sign saying I sell records not wall coverings I.E vinyl)by Telly Savalas with his all time classic"A good time man like me ain't got no business singing the blues"
This will be accompanied by a bottle of Mogan David's extra heavy Málaga wine ,with lime juice and soda.
To top it off, I'll educate myself with that classic American book on economic theory ,"Think big and kick ass"by one Donald J Trump(I think it was in collaboration with Irma Klutz but can't be sure).Yippee Kay yay .
See, that's what happens when Jacob loses his seat. Somerset is flooded with leopard-print man-panties. That Dan Norris has a lot to answer for.
Peter Ridler is quite right to say about buying British Veg and produce,sadly it is very hard to find a greengrocers these days.In Bath there are two barrow boys but the rest is supermarkets.When I lived in Rimini there was a wonderful "Mercato coperto"(covered market).All individual traders selling their fresh products,glorious a feast for the eyes.
There is one greengrocer in Frome and one in Moorland rd,Bath.Formerly Stokes a local chain ,they've been taken over by Syrians and I believe they are some sort of money laundering front.The fruit looks good but goes rotten within hours.They're clearly not skilled greengrocers as in summer they leave it all out in the sunlight.
The wonderful Grocers at Keynsham ,where Jacob's HQ was ,went sometime ago,having been there for donkeys years.
I'm glad you said American Beef is ALMOST as good as that from Somerset..I don't know about the British wine industry as I prefer Chilean wine (And raise a glass to Pinochet)or Argentinian Malbec.I always found Argentinian beef was very good ,the industry having been founded by English settlers I believe.As for economics I'll leave it you ,I always remember Ian Smith at one of our lunches at our club saying "Give me a one handed economist ,so they can't say on the other hand."He was a great admirer of the remarkable Salazar,who always balanced the budget and was a very modest man.When Ian met him(Mozambique was controlled by Portugal at the time, so important for Rhodesia's border.He was looked after by nuns.I've always found Portuguese clothes excellent.
WE have a labour shortage here on farms and literally thousands of black illegal immigrants.I don't see why they shouldn't be made to earn their keep and put to work on our farms.Indeed this is work at which they excell and are used to.On returning from Elba with a friend ,we passed Vinci (where Leonardo was born).There was a field of blacks working,it took me back to Africa but I said to Andrea it's good they're being put to work and they were obviously happy since there was no coercion..