I am very thankful for Free Traders being a key faction of the Brexit movement. I think that the coalition could be brought back together in 2029.
High Street is getting crushed by Labour. Bank of England forecasts for small business bring tears to my eyes. If Free Traders can support small businesses across the country I think there will be lots of reciprocity.
I think no one will get everything they want in politics. One concession is that I think some protections against countries that pay too little for labour. What is the principle of a price floor on labour for your own country but not for your trading partner? The price floor on labour is based on a very popular principle of the “living wage”. So some things can’t be free traded away.
High subsidies are not conservative but they might be necessary to get a concession from farmers for free trade. If farmers can get by doing something they’ll do it. American Barley might not compete with subsidized British Barley but a whole load of American products could have the drawbridge lowered for like beef.
I think that Free Traders can win a lot of concessions and make a lot of deals in actually implementing Brexit freedoms and the future of UK policy. I don’t think it will be perfect Free Trade theory. I think it could be a lot better than it is now and that it will be so much better than if stuck in the low growth, low productivity EU.
I really hope Reform, the Tories, and everyone gets back together for 2029. Combined it’s the biggest voting bloc in Britain in the 21st century. It’s truly the will of the people and shrewd characters in a Government could get a domestic deal done where everyone gets something they want and international deals that open up foreign markets for British entrepreneurs.
Happy to see you’re still up and fighting for Brexit.
Thank you for your thoughtful comments. I wouldn't put a floor on the price of labour, as trade is the best way to help countries out of poverty, who will then buy your goods. Global absolute poverty has collapsed since 1990, as China and India started to trade, and this has helped developed economies sell their goods in return.
I agree with you on subsidies, as there may be some industries that you to need help, either for strategic for political reasons.
Thank you, Jacob. A timely and necessary illumination of tariffs, a subject we indeed need to get to grips with. Everything you say is true but there are many other factors driving President Trump’s stance that must be considered.
We are not in Ricardo’s free-wheeling, small nation, small company, low tax, liberal (small l), unregulated 19th. Century.
Large mercantilist trade blocs such as the EU, and bad actor nations like Russia and China confront us.
China with its under-valued exchange rate, subsidised manufactures and exports, non-existent patent and intellectual property protection , slave Labour, disdain for the environment and encouragement of industrial larceny is gaming the system.
Multinational companies and Wall Street have also colluded with China in the hollowing out and de-industrialisation of the West.
The result for blue-collar workers and the middle class has been falling real incomes. The share of profits relative to incomes in western economies has been rising throughout the 21st Century. Our people are getting poorer.
This is not a left-wing rant nor a recent event. Sir James Goldsmith, no limp leftie, predicted just this outcome in his prescient little book, The Trap, published in 1997.
Trump at least sees today’s problem; his policy solution may not be perfect, it may be wrong. But Jacob, we must confront today’s world; 19th century economic theory and High Tory philosophy doesn’t cut our more complicated problems.
Our 30-year western decline is embedded here. For sure, policy errors, pure leadership funk, short-termism and scientific cluelessness have also played their part
Thank you for your reply and the reference to Jimmy Goldsmith's book 'The Trap', which I read many years ago.
I think the policy that has kept down wages is mass migration, not free trade. This has stopped us innovating and investing in capital, because cheap labour has been seen as a panacea by businesses. Lowering the cost of goods always improves the standard of living of people who are buying them, regardless of whether they are subsidised by foreign government or not.
Trump's trading arrangement with China is certainly a work in progress, as he just suspended the imposed tariffs on Chinese goods. I like that he is willing to turn on a dime like that when things go south for his citizens. People who were ordering inexpensive items from certain Chinese websites were getting charged 25% of the merchandise price as an additional tariff. Trump pulled that for the next 30 days.
A neighbor of mine orders many clothing items online from Chinese websites with very attractive low prices. Once you add 25% to the cost, why order from China? Trump will make a deal with them for sure.
I hope the deal includes better packaging. One particular Chinese website ships clothing in clear plastic bags. This practice is heinous. Why not use an opaque bag or box so that shipping clerks and postal workers are not gawping at your delicates and unmentionables? I don't want my postman Gerard snickering at my little frillies. I like my goods shipped in sturdy boxes with lots of bubble wrap.
“China’s 2024 trade surplus was nearly $1Trillion, a record for not just China, but, adjusted for inflation, for any country in the world dating back for at least 100 years….” FFTT, Luke Gromen 7th Feb 2025.
These newly released trade figures illustrate just how China is gaming the world trade system. It’s a growing problem; it’s a world problem; it’s pure mercantilism; it’s now too big to duck.
Mercantilism is ultimately bad for the mercantilist. China is building up these surpluses but allocating capital badly, and has weak banking and property sectors. There may be some strategic industries where we should be concerned about its monopolistic tendencies, e.g. rare earth metals, but the main damage we have done to ourselves is through regulation, especially the green ideology, which has destroyed our steel industry, and is destroying our car industry.
The folly of mercantilism is probably an article in itself, which I will add to the list.
I am a citizen of mainland China, and I can assure you that Chinese people, especially the younger generation, take pride in wearing brands like Adidas and Nike. I understand that this may be difficult to grasp, but the reality is that Chinese consumers tend to avoid domestic products. In China, people generally believe that low prices are a sign of poor quality.😂
Thanks for the information regarding our trade agreements and some facts about the negative impacts from some quarters. The worry about poor quality beef or poultry is a non event as the buyer has the choice. The same applies to any product on sale. “ He who pays the piper calls the tune “ . Buy British veg and produce to save on global transport.
A very timely article Sir Jacob
Thank you for your clarity of thought over a subject that requires more careful consideration.
Hello Jacob,
I am very thankful for Free Traders being a key faction of the Brexit movement. I think that the coalition could be brought back together in 2029.
High Street is getting crushed by Labour. Bank of England forecasts for small business bring tears to my eyes. If Free Traders can support small businesses across the country I think there will be lots of reciprocity.
I think no one will get everything they want in politics. One concession is that I think some protections against countries that pay too little for labour. What is the principle of a price floor on labour for your own country but not for your trading partner? The price floor on labour is based on a very popular principle of the “living wage”. So some things can’t be free traded away.
High subsidies are not conservative but they might be necessary to get a concession from farmers for free trade. If farmers can get by doing something they’ll do it. American Barley might not compete with subsidized British Barley but a whole load of American products could have the drawbridge lowered for like beef.
I think that Free Traders can win a lot of concessions and make a lot of deals in actually implementing Brexit freedoms and the future of UK policy. I don’t think it will be perfect Free Trade theory. I think it could be a lot better than it is now and that it will be so much better than if stuck in the low growth, low productivity EU.
I really hope Reform, the Tories, and everyone gets back together for 2029. Combined it’s the biggest voting bloc in Britain in the 21st century. It’s truly the will of the people and shrewd characters in a Government could get a domestic deal done where everyone gets something they want and international deals that open up foreign markets for British entrepreneurs.
Happy to see you’re still up and fighting for Brexit.
Thanks
Thank you for your thoughtful comments. I wouldn't put a floor on the price of labour, as trade is the best way to help countries out of poverty, who will then buy your goods. Global absolute poverty has collapsed since 1990, as China and India started to trade, and this has helped developed economies sell their goods in return.
I agree with you on subsidies, as there may be some industries that you to need help, either for strategic for political reasons.
“2025 election” YES！
Thank you, Jacob. A timely and necessary illumination of tariffs, a subject we indeed need to get to grips with. Everything you say is true but there are many other factors driving President Trump’s stance that must be considered.
We are not in Ricardo’s free-wheeling, small nation, small company, low tax, liberal (small l), unregulated 19th. Century.
Large mercantilist trade blocs such as the EU, and bad actor nations like Russia and China confront us.
China with its under-valued exchange rate, subsidised manufactures and exports, non-existent patent and intellectual property protection , slave Labour, disdain for the environment and encouragement of industrial larceny is gaming the system.
Multinational companies and Wall Street have also colluded with China in the hollowing out and de-industrialisation of the West.
The result for blue-collar workers and the middle class has been falling real incomes. The share of profits relative to incomes in western economies has been rising throughout the 21st Century. Our people are getting poorer.
This is not a left-wing rant nor a recent event. Sir James Goldsmith, no limp leftie, predicted just this outcome in his prescient little book, The Trap, published in 1997.
Trump at least sees today’s problem; his policy solution may not be perfect, it may be wrong. But Jacob, we must confront today’s world; 19th century economic theory and High Tory philosophy doesn’t cut our more complicated problems.
Our 30-year western decline is embedded here. For sure, policy errors, pure leadership funk, short-termism and scientific cluelessness have also played their part
Thank you for your reply and the reference to Jimmy Goldsmith's book 'The Trap', which I read many years ago.
I think the policy that has kept down wages is mass migration, not free trade. This has stopped us innovating and investing in capital, because cheap labour has been seen as a panacea by businesses. Lowering the cost of goods always improves the standard of living of people who are buying them, regardless of whether they are subsidised by foreign government or not.
Very insightful, HugoC.
Trump's trading arrangement with China is certainly a work in progress, as he just suspended the imposed tariffs on Chinese goods. I like that he is willing to turn on a dime like that when things go south for his citizens. People who were ordering inexpensive items from certain Chinese websites were getting charged 25% of the merchandise price as an additional tariff. Trump pulled that for the next 30 days.
A neighbor of mine orders many clothing items online from Chinese websites with very attractive low prices. Once you add 25% to the cost, why order from China? Trump will make a deal with them for sure.
I hope the deal includes better packaging. One particular Chinese website ships clothing in clear plastic bags. This practice is heinous. Why not use an opaque bag or box so that shipping clerks and postal workers are not gawping at your delicates and unmentionables? I don't want my postman Gerard snickering at my little frillies. I like my goods shipped in sturdy boxes with lots of bubble wrap.
“China’s 2024 trade surplus was nearly $1Trillion, a record for not just China, but, adjusted for inflation, for any country in the world dating back for at least 100 years….” FFTT, Luke Gromen 7th Feb 2025.
These newly released trade figures illustrate just how China is gaming the world trade system. It’s a growing problem; it’s a world problem; it’s pure mercantilism; it’s now too big to duck.
Mercantilism is ultimately bad for the mercantilist. China is building up these surpluses but allocating capital badly, and has weak banking and property sectors. There may be some strategic industries where we should be concerned about its monopolistic tendencies, e.g. rare earth metals, but the main damage we have done to ourselves is through regulation, especially the green ideology, which has destroyed our steel industry, and is destroying our car industry.
The folly of mercantilism is probably an article in itself, which I will add to the list.
Yes please. You will have a long list in these days of change but move mercantilism up the list. Your thoughtful analysis is much appreciated.
I am a citizen of mainland China, and I can assure you that Chinese people, especially the younger generation, take pride in wearing brands like Adidas and Nike. I understand that this may be difficult to grasp, but the reality is that Chinese consumers tend to avoid domestic products. In China, people generally believe that low prices are a sign of poor quality.😂
Thanks for the information regarding our trade agreements and some facts about the negative impacts from some quarters. The worry about poor quality beef or poultry is a non event as the buyer has the choice. The same applies to any product on sale. “ He who pays the piper calls the tune “ . Buy British veg and produce to save on global transport.
See, that's what happens when Jacob loses his seat. Somerset is flooded with leopard-print man-panties. That Dan Norris has a lot to answer for.