New Year Thoughts

The beginning of a new year ought to be a time of optimism. A time to look forward to the next twelve months with an uplifted spirit, rather than being full of gloom.

If I were an American, this is exactly how I would feel. The second Trump presidency has great energy behind it, and a vision of how to govern. No doubt not everything will go to plan, and there will be great rows between some of the participants. Donald Trump will fire many people, but the slogan ‘Make America Great Again’ has some force behind it, and a self-confidence that so many countries in the West now lack. Instead, they have an apologetic view of history and an unambitious expectation for the future.

Here in the United Kingdom, I feel as Pandora must have done after opening her infamous box. While interpretations about the precise translation of the Greek myth vary, it is commonly held that the last thing left, after all the troubles of the world emerged, was hope. In the UK we must cling to this, for we do not have a government in the Trump mould.

Indeed, we have a terrible government, not merely one that, as a partisan, I do not support; but one that has learned nothing from past failures, and is both vindictive and incompetent.

Its vindictiveness is shown both in its attack on private schools, and on businesses. It is envious of success. The 20% tax on school fees is already seeing schools close, as parents cannot find the extra money. The government seems unaware of, or malignantly chooses to ignore, the effect of changes at the margin. A school with 95% of its places filled may break even but one with 90% may go bust with all the places lost.

The loss of 5% of pupils could be catastrophic to a business in the same way as hotel occupancy is highly geared from the break-even point. This means that the effect of a loss of pupils will be greater than it first appears, as the fixed costs of schools are high in comparison to other businesses.